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Come Unity or Separation, Peace Must Prevail in Sudan

The great paradox of the Sudan is that Africa’s largest nation in terms of geographic size is simultaneously a land of milk and honey as well as torrents of blood and tears shed on an epic scale.

Sudan is blessed with so many natural resources, including water and forests, particularly in the South, that it is truly a land of plenty, a possible paradise in earth.  But it is also the land of the world’s longest civil war, the conflict between North and South which ended (some say merely halted) in 2005 with the Kenyan-brokered Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), arguably the most carefully crafted and loophole-resistant peace pact in the history of conflict resolution.

Some of the most harmful yet intractable ill-will, bad faith and sheer skulduggery in the public sphere in the world and in history are to be found in the North-South divide in Sudan. Consider but one instance. Sudan is an oil-producing nation, but, fully five years after the signing of the CPA, there is still no clarity (and therefore no transparency) regarding such a basic matter as the correct and true position on oil revenues data.

As Minister for Petroleum Dr Lual Deng told Diplomat East Africa in a wide-ranging and highly informative interview, guidelines are still being developed to get to the bottom of the oil revenue figures and to address questions of transparency because this is a supremely sensitive sector, to say the least. Oil accounts for more than 90 per cent of Sudanese exports, 40 to 60 per cent of government national revenues and 98 per cent of gross revenues.

Finding out what those figures are and how equitably (or not) they are disbursed should not be a matter of rocket science. But that is how deep the mistrust and bad faith run in Sudan. And the cheating is not merely a matter of the North outwitting the South or vice versa, it is also perpetrated by the oil companies themselves, as Dr Deng notes, through maliciously falsified data. And yet the CPA, spells out how wealth sharing is to proceed in the most precise and unambiguous terms.

This is but one of the many-too-many deeply flawed and potentially explosive backdrops against which the national self-determination referendum for the South scheduled for January 2011 will be held.

Whichever way the referendum vote goes — separation and the creation of a brand-new neighbour in the East African neighbourhood and among the comity of nations, or union and the expansion of the EA catchment area all the way to Khartoum — it is vitally important that peace prevails and there is no return to conflict whatsoever.

The simultaneous vote in the hotly contested oil district of Abyei on the border between North and South, whose residents are being given the stark choice of remaining with the North or joining an autonomous or completely independent South, remains a flashpoint of potential crisis and must be handled with the utmost care and restraint.

The land of the two Niles, which meet in Khartoum, must no longer be the epicentre of conflict in our region — it must become the hub of peace, humming with all the prosperity that its great gifting in natural resources is capable of generating, and the bridge between the African and Arab parts of our continent.

What happens next in Sudan will have immediate impacts on nations as far-flung as Egypt, Libya, Chad, Central Africa Republic, DRC, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Eritrea.

One way of guaranteeing that the next act in Sudan’s epic saga is peace, peace and yet more peace, is for all sides to heed former Kenyan President Daniel arap Moi’s sage advice, in his address to the Southern Sudan Parliament in Juba in October, calling for maximum focus on conclusion of the CPA process “without relenting or looking back.
 

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