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Sudan: Challenges of Separation

Unless there is a last minute and sea change of mind and conviction in Southern Sudan, all indications are that the people of this region of Africa’s largest country will on January 9 vote to break from the union as we know it and usher in Africa’s newest country.That will not be an end but the beginning of a long journey for both Khartoum and Juba. The break up will throw up a host of challenges mainly for the South but also for Khartoum because separation does not begin and end with the declaration of the results of the referendum.

In light of this, we are of the opinion that diplomats from both Khartoum and Juba should be guided by a single principle in discussing the issues that a break-up of the Sudan union as we know it will throw up – peace must prevail at every stage of discussion and deliberation.In this regard, we would like to posit that diplomats of the African Union and the United Nations be actively involved in ensuring that negotiations between Khartoum and Juba regarding their post-referendum relations are driven by the absolute need to ensure peace in Sudan.

It is possible that either Khartoum or Juba or both would want to argue that this is an internal matter which should be left to them to solve. But our position here is that involvement of AU and UN would not amount to interference because a return to conflict would engulf an entire region and draw in the continental and global bodies.

Separation will mean, for example,  that where Juba and Khartoum have been in the same borders and governed by the same laws, they will now be in different countries and will now relate to each other through the foreign policies that they will adopt towards each other. Breaking up the union means that the common border has to be agreed upon. However, though Khartoum and Juba agreed a ‘soft boarder’ in November, they have to sit down and agree on a common and permanent border to separate them sooner rather than later.

We say sooner rather than later because as is evident from all corners of Africa border disputes and conflicts have always led to instability on the continent. For example, Somalia and Ethiopia fought an ultimately futile war over the Ogaden Province in the 1970s and for the better part of 2010 Kampala and Nairobi have rowed over the island of Migingo in Lake Victoria.

After agreeing the common border Juba and Khartoum must find common ground on the increasingly sensitive and potentially explosive issue of sharing oil revenues. Again, it should not be lost on both parties in Sudan that the reason Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990 was that Baghdad was persuaded that the Kuwaitis were stealing Iraqi oil.

In the Sudan, southerners hold the view that they are not getting their fair share of oil revenues. The northerners argue that the figures are there for all to see that these revenues are shared between Khartoum and Juba. These suspicions need to be allayed as the two sides separate.Equally divisive is the matter of Sudan’s huge government debt. There are those who argue that the debt was incurred by the government in Khartoum and there should be no reason for the southerners to be asked to help repay it or inherit part of it.

This argument is countered by those who take the view that the debt was incurred because the entire country needed services and therefore both Khartoum and Juba should repay it. A common ground must be reached amicably.We are confident that Khartoum and Juba can reach agreement on these three crucial issues and that when they do the way forward on other issues should be relatively smooth. This is the way it should be in order that Juba can embark on the business of nation building in earnest because there is a lot to be done.

Needless to say, Juba will be looking to the international community for the financial wherewithal to help it embark and remain on the track of nation building and that in itself is just as important as agreeing a common border with Khartoum
 

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