Egypt and Sudan rattled as upstream countries sign new deal, writes JANE MWANGI

A move by five upstream  Nile Basin countries to sign a new water sharing treaty has rattled Egypt and Sudan who have dominated the use of Africa’s longest river under colonial agreements.

The two countries see the treaty-signed by Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya-as a threat to their historical share of the water and survival.

The Nile supplies  water to virtually the entire Egyptian population of 80 million, a number that is projected to reach 97 million by 2025 according to World Bank statistics. The signing, which excluded Egypt and Sudan, came after years of talks failed to convince the two downstream countries to come on board.

UPSTREAM

Currently, the sharing of the Nile water is determined by two treaties signed in 1929 and 1959, which grant Egypt and Sudan the lion’s share.  Under the terms of these treaties, Egypt has the right to use 55.5 billion cubic metres of the water per year, while Sudan is allocated 18.5 billion cubic metres annually.

The treaties also stipulate that no major water projects, such as dams or irrigation works, can be undertaken by upstream countries without the express permission of Egypt and Sudan.

The upstream countries have long argued that these treaties, signed while they were under colonial occupation, failed to secure their legitimate water rights hence the  effort for redress. Since the 1990s, upstream countries have been trying in vain to hammer out a revised framework agreement for water sharing, dubbed the Nile Basin Initiative.

The pressure has increased as these countries, with a combined population of over 200 million, seek to exploit the Nile’s resources, especially in energy generation to power their growing economies. Some experts have warned that if the matter is left  unaddressed, it may lead to a violent conflict over the Nile’s waters in the region.

Egypt has rights to 87 per cent of the Nile while Sudan claims the remaining 13 per cent. Ethiopia, the source of the Blue Nile, and up to 86 per cent of the Nile’s water, has been at the forefront of the new agreement. It has recently inaugurated a new hydro-power dam on the Blue Nile River-the Tana Beles. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said during the launch that the Tana Beles marks the realisation of Ethiopia’s 100-year efforts to utilise  the Nile.

Cairo has expressed concern over the project’s impact on water flows and has threatened to lobby its Italian financiers to stop its construction.

CONSERVATION

But Mr Mesfin Shenkut, a water and conservation expert with MS Consulting; one of Ethiopia’s leading conglomerates, says that  hydropower projects help to regulate water flow, mitigate floods and generate power for the common use of neighbouring countries. Until recently, Ethiopia generated only about 700 MW of power from  the Nile yet it has the potential to generate more than 45,000 MW.

Apart from pressure on financiers,  Egypt has also launched a charm offensive on  Ethiopia and Kenya in a bid to soften their stand on the new agreement.  Cairo has pledged to fund a number of projects in these countries, including conservation of Kenya’s Mau Forest, in a bid to secure the Nile waters.  On a recent visit to Egypt, Kenya’s Prime Minister Raila Odinga assured Cairo that the upstream countries will not do anything to jeopardise it’s survival and urged it to sign the treaty.

In 1993, Egypt signed a framework for cooperation with Ethiopia in which they agreed that neither country would do anything with the River Nile that causes “appreciable harm” to the other, and to consult and cooperate on projects.

But all these agreements and treaties do little justice to calm the storm that is slowly brewing. The reality that 10 Nile riparian countries created the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) to substitute a half-century-old Nile water usage agreement with a new multilateral agreement that mirror contemporary demographic and development realities cannot be ignored.

The signing of the landmark Nile cooperation agreement puts a new spin in the wheel that reallocates the water resources among all the riparian countries.

Upon the historic signing, the Egyptian Minister for Irrigation Mohammad Nasr Allam in a statement to Egypt’s parliament said: “Egypt’s share of the Nile’s water is a historic right that Egypt has defended throughout its history."

The refusal of Egypt and Sudan to renegotiate has not deterred the rest of the riparian countries but rather strengthened their resolve. Shenkut says the Nile countries must  create a win-win situation. All these countries should sit together and decide not only how to use the water but also how to preserve and conserve it. It’s indeed a very delicate issue,” he says.

In Africa, he says, the main source of conflicts is resources. He insists that Ethiopia will not do anything that harms the Nile as per  the 1993 agreement signed with Egypt.

But he adds that Ethiopia is perfectly within its rights to exploit the Nile waters citing a research conducted by the University of Colorado based on principles of international law for water allocation of trans-boundary rivers. According to the research, the upstream state prevails when it comes to absolute territorial sovereignty.

A sovereign nation, he says, enjoys total power over the natural resources within its boundaries. Under this principle, an upstream state may as a matter of international law, do what it wishes with a river in its territory without considering the downstream consequences of another nation.  
On the other hand, the downstream state prevails when it comes to absolute territorial integrity.

UTILISATION

Under this theory, the upstream nation has a legal obligation to leave as much water in an international river as the downstream nation needs. Thirdly, there is the doctrine of equitable and reasonable utilisation. This is a more flexible approach to water allocation.

Is there a win-win approach to the conflict surrounding the Nile? According to Shenkut this can be achieved and he cites the  1993 agreement between Egypt and Ethiopia.  Indeed, he says, this is the same goal the Nile Basin Initiative seeks to achieve.

Movers of the NBI say they have a vision to achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilisation of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources. The vision therefore puts economic development at its centre, not to mention concrete investment projects at the sub-basin and national level.